Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: the role of financial development
Résumé
Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a
sharp increase in oil prices. In this paper, we investigate this oil price-current account
relationship on a sample of 27 oil-exporting economies. Relying upon the estimation of panel
smooth transition regression models over the 1980-2010 period, we provide evidence that
refines the traditional interpretation of oil price effects on current accounts. While current
accounts are positively affected by oil price variations, this effect is nonlinear and depends
critically on the degree of financial development of oil-exporting economies. More
specifically, oil price variations exert a stronger impact on the current account position for
less financially developed countries, this influence diminishing with financial deepness.
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